Tag: base-rate-neglect

• 24.07

  “Are you even good enough?” — the question data forces you to ask

• 24.07

  Confidence isn’t a market

• 23.07

  The outside view was never competing with your expertise

• 22.07

  The forecaster who ignored Syria to predict Syria

• 20.07

  Nine out of ten projects miss their budget. Yours probably will too.